Thinking Machines in talks for $1B round at $40B valuation

Thinking Machines, the AI research lab founded by former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, is reportedly in discussions to raise $1 billion at a valuation of at least $40 billion. According to reports from The Information, existing backer Accel is in talks to lead the fundraise. If completed, this round would value the company below the $50 billion mark it reportedly sought late last year, but it would still represent a significant jump from its previous $12 billion valuation.

The financial metrics behind the valuation are striking. Sources indicate that Thinking Machines’ annual revenue run rate stands at over $100 million. At that figure, a $40 billion valuation reflects an extraordinarily high revenue multiple, suggesting investors are pricing in massive future growth or strategic value rather than current profitability.

The startup’s business model centers on its Tinker platform, which generates revenue by charging usage-based compute fees for adapting models on proprietary data. In July, the company introduced Inkling, an open-weight model that serves as a key component of this strategy. This approach allows developers to fine-tune models on their own data while leveraging Thinking Machines’ infrastructure.

Thinking Machines has attracted significant attention and capital since its founding. Its prior $2 billion round, led by Andreessen Horowitz and joined by Nvidia, GV, Lightspeed, and Conviction Partners, is among the largest seed financings in history. However, the company has faced challenges, including several high-profile departures. Notably, co-founders Lilian Weng and Luke Metz have returned to OpenAI, raising questions about the stability of the team that initially drew investor interest.